Umber v1.0.0, run 5

Scores

Claims

Each claim with its sources and the agent's stated confidence. Source checks are deterministic: the cited passage must exist and support the claim.

1. 1

   Onset dates fall within a 9-day window across three adjacent districts, which fits a shared exposure better than sustained person-to-person spread.

   • SourceCase line list, onset_date by district
   • SourceSandbox: epidemic curve, run 3
   Confidence61%

   Sources support it

2. 2

   Median case age is 14 years above the seasonal respiratory baseline for the same districts.

   • SourceCase line list, age
   • SourceSeasonal baseline, 2015 to 2025, table 4
   Confidence69%

   Sources only partly support it

3. 3

   The provided material contains no laboratory confirmation of any cause, so every cause in this report is a hypothesis.

   • SourceCase line list, lab_result field
   • SourceSponsor data notes
   Confidence68%

   Sources support it

4. 4

   Severity is concentrated in cases over 60, matching the pattern of most community respiratory clusters in the outbreak archive.

   • SourceOutbreak report archive, 214 respiratory reports
   • SourceCase line list, outcome
   Confidence53%

   Sources support it

5. 5

   Linking cases to hospital admission records would separate a severity signal from a reporting artefact.

   • SourceSponsor data notes
   • SourceOutbreak report archive, methods sections
   Confidence73%

   Sources support it

Tool calls